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黑田东彦为负利率申辩

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 11:09:39
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(  日)(本)(央)(行)(行)(长)(黑)(田)(东)(彦)(在)(二)(十)(国)(集)(团)((G20)财)(长)(和)(央)(行)(行)(长)(会)(议)(结)(束)(后)(表)(示)(,日)(本)(央)(行)(为)(尽)(快)(达)(成)(通)(胀)(目)(标)((2%)而)(推)(行)(的)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(,已)(得)(到)(其)(他)(货)(币)(政)(策)(制)(定)(者)(的)(充)(分)(理)(解)(。  但)(这)(只)(是)(黑)(田)(东)(彦)(的)(一)(面)(之)(词)(,其)(他)(经)(济)(体)(怎)(能)(放)(下)(心)(中)(的)(疑)(虑)(?英)(国)(央)(行)(行)(长)(卡)(尼)(在)(本)(次)(会)(议)(之)(前)(就)(曾)(一)(针)(见)(血)(地)(表)(示)(,主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(把)(利)(率)(降)(至)(负)(值)(,将)(形)(成)(“以)(邻)(为)(壑)(”的)(环)(境)(,导)(致)(全)(球)(经)(济)(陷)(入)(长)(时)(期)(的)(低)(增)(长)(困)(境)(。  日)(本)(央)(行)(是)(在)(今)(年)(1月)(底)(宣)(布)(实)(行)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(的)(,称)(未)(来)(将)(实)(行)(“负)(利)(率)(的)(量)(化)(和)(质)(化)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(措)(施)(”,把)(民)(间)(金)(融)(机)(构)(存)(入)(日)(本)(央)(行)(的)(存)(款)(准)(备)(金)(利)(率)(下)(调)(至)(-0.1%。此)(后)(,黑)(田)(东)(彦)(在)(很)(多)(场)(合)(重)(申)(,为)(了)(抵)(消)(全)(球)(原)(油)(价)(格)(暴)(跌)(和)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(经)(济)(下)(滑)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,日)(本)(央)(行)(有)(可)(能)(深)(化)(负)(利)(率)(措)(施)(,并)(扩)(大)(资)(产)(购)(买)(规)(模)(。有)(分)(析)(指)(出)(,在)(“安)(倍)(经)(济)(学)(”几)(乎)(破)(产)(的)(现)(状)(下)(,黑)(田)(的)(表)(态)(意)(味)(着)(日)(本)(货)(币)(政)(策)(将)(走)(向)(极)(致)(宽)(松)(。  宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,是)(应)(对)(经)(济)(下)(滑)(的)(常)(规)(药)(方)(之)(一)(。简)(单)(地)(说)(,中)(央)(银)(行)(降)(低)(利)(率)(,根)(本)(目)(的)(是)(刺)(激)(总)(需)(求)(、提)(振)(通)(胀)(。但)(是)(,当)(前)(全)(球)(经)(济)(形)(成)(缓)(慢)(复)(苏)(的)(复)(杂)(格)(局)(,是)(周)(期)(性)(因)(素)(和)(结)(构)(性)(因)(素)(叠)(加)(造)(成)(的)(,过)(度)(依)(靠)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,甚)(至)(由)(传)(统)(的)(降)(息)(扩)(展)(为)(非)(常)(规)(的)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(,进)(而)(实)(行)(负)(利)(率)(,只)(能)(起)(到)(舒)(缓)(疼)(痛)(之)(用)(。从)(理)(论)(上)(说)(,负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(作)(为)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(当)(中)(的)(“终)(极)(杀)(器)(”之)(一)(,本)(应)(放)(在)(央)(行)(政)(策)(工)(具)(箱)(的)(最)(深)(处)(,只)(有)(在)(传)(统)(政)(策)(已)(没)(有)(腾)(挪)(空)(间)(甚)(至)(失)(灵)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,才)(会)(拿)(出)(来)(解)(燃)(眉)(之)(急)(。此)(外)(,从)(已)(实)(施)(负)(利)(率)(的)(瑞)(典)(、瑞)(士)(、丹)(麦)(、日)(本)(来)(看)(,利)(用)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(造)(成)(本)(币)(贬)(值)(,保)(持)(出)(口)(的)(竞)(争)(力)(,是)(大)(家)(心)(照)(不)(宣)(的)(另)(一)(个)(诉)(求)(。  负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(能)(否)(像)(黑)(田)(东)(彦)(所)(言)(,对)(日)(本)(经)(济)(产)(生)(真)(正)(的)(促)(进)(作)(用)(,目)(前)(尚)(难)(得)(出)(结)(论)(。需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,目)(前)(日)(本)(执)(行)(的)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(只)(是)(商)(业)(银)(行)(在)(中)(央)(银)(行)(存)(款)(的)(利)(率)(为)(负)(,是)(否)(能)(够)(产)(生)(鼓)(励)(银)(行)(放)(贷)(和)(企)(业)(投)(资)(,刺)(激)(居)(民)(消)(费)(的)(效)(果)(还)(有)(待)(观)(察)(。实)(际)(上)(,日)(本)(金)(融)(厅)(已)(经)(展)(开)(调)(查)(,摸)(底)(负)(利)(率)(对)(日)(本)(银)(行)(业)(乃)(至)(整)(个)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(运)(营)(产)(生)(的)(消)(极)(影)(响)(。而)(且)(,利)(用)(负)(利)(率)(造)(成)(本)(币)(贬)(值)(,然)(后)(促)(进)(出)(口)(,这)(个)(如)(意)(算)(盘)(是)(否)(成)(立)(不)(仅)(取)(决)(于)(日)(本)(央)(行)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,也)(取)(决)(于)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(。如)(果)(其)(他)(国)(家)(采)(取)(类)(似)(的)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(进)(行)(冲)(抵)(,在)(金)(融)(市)(场)(动)(荡)(的)(大)(背)(景)(下)(具)(有)(避)(险)(功)(能)(的)(日)(元)(是)(难)(以)(走)(软)(的)(。  令)(人)(担)(心)(的)(是)(,实)(行)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(的)(国)(家)(可)(能)(会)(产)(生)(示)(范)(效)(应)(。在)(全)(球)(经)(济)(增)(长)(乏)(力)(、宽)(松)(政)(策)(大)(行)(其)(道)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,很)(多)(经)(济)(体)(被)(迫)(投)(身)(到)(汇)(率)(大)(战)(当)(中)(,负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(将)(被)(央)(行)(寄)(予)(厚)(望)(。国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)(在)(日)(前)(发)(布)(的)(《全)(球)(前)(景)(和)(政)(策)(挑)(战)(》报)(告)(中)(指)(出)(,伴)(随)(着)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(动)(荡)(加)(剧)(、资)(产)(价)(格)(下)(挫)(的)(趋)(势)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(增)(长)(有)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(放)(缓)(,考)(虑)(到)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(疲)(软)(以)(及)(金)(融)(市)(场)(动)(荡)(加)(剧)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(更)(容)(易)(受)(到)(负)(面)(冲)(击)(。可)(以)(说)(,推)(行)(负)(利)(率)(政)(策)(,无)(疑)(是)(将)(一)(国)(经)(济)(引)(入)(前)(所)(未)(知)(的)(领)(域)(,除)(了)(本)(国)(要)(当)(心)(由)(此)(产)(生)(的)(经)(济)(漩)(涡)(和)(货)(币)(激)(流)(,其)(他)(国)(家)(也)(要)(提)(防)(此)(举)(在)(金)(融)(市)(场)(中)(可)(能)(引)(发)(的)(滔)(天)(巨)(浪)(。  在)(刚)(刚)(结)(束)(的)(G20财)(长)(和)(央)(行)(行)(长)(会)(议)(上)(,与)(会)(者)(就)(当)(前)(世)(界)(经)(济)(问)(题)(达)(成)(了)(三)(点)(共)(识)(;第)(一)(是)(全)(球)(经)(济)(风)(险)(有)(所)(上)(升)(,第)(二)(是)(不)(应)(过)(度)(悲)(观)(,第)(三)(是)(G20需)(要)(共)(同)(采)(取)(行)(动)(,促)(进)(全)(球)(经)(济)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(。与)(会)(者)(同)(意)(就)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(密)(切)(讨)(论)(沟)(通)(,避)(免)(竞)(争)(性)(贬)(值)(;同)(时)(将)(清)(晰)(地)(沟)(通)(各)(自)(的)(政)(策)(行)(为)(,增)(加)(政)(策)(透)(明)(度)(,减)(少)(负)(面)(溢)(出)(效)(应)(。  实)(际)(上)(,这)(也)(是)(给)(进)(入)(加)(息)(通)(道)(的)(美)(联)(储)(、实)(施)(负)(利)(率)(的)(日)(本)(央)(行)(以)(及)(打)(算)(扩)(大)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(规)(模)(的)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(一)(个)(善)(意)(的)(提)(醒)(:全)(球)(化)(之)(下)(,主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(均)(置)(身)(于)(同)(样)(的)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(之)(中)(,谁)(也)(无)(法)(独)(善)(其)(身)(,那)(些)(只)(顾)(本)(国)(利)(益)(而)(忽)(略)(他)(国)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(终)(将)(导)(致)(满)(盘)(皆)(输)(。  作)(者)(:龙)(二)(
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